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Q. Hong Kong's GDP growth declined for the fourth quarter and its impact on China's economy
We expect further weakness in HK & China data. Many investors paid attention to the development of Chinese real estate sector, including the troubles in Country Garden and Evergrande. But we believe this is about time to pay more attention to the smaller players: smaller developers and money lenders are facing liquidity crunch, and the damage has not been fully priced in the market yet. The government should do more, and can do more. I think next quarters present interesting trading opportuinties for the short term traders.
Q. The impact of the interest rate decision on the New Zealand dollar
The inflation in New Zealand has been sticky and has formed the basis for the hawkish central bank for quite some time. But the recent inflation expectation was somewhat lower than expected, and the Centeral Bank has responded with more conservative approach. There is some debate whether the Central Bank will raise rate in the 1st half of this year, but we believe that the core inflation will stay contained for quite sometime and this will increase the likelyhood that the rate will stay where it is for the 1st half of the year. Accordingly we believe the New Zealand dollar will show sign of weakness in comming months.
Q. Expectations of the Australian Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy after the decline in the consumer price index (inflation)
We believe the central bank will focus on the employment, export, and overal inflation data for comming days. We think the market fundamental will be weaker than many expected, the recent inflation data was weaker than expected and we expect the weakness to continue and this will induce central bank for more dovish monetary policy.
Post | Feed | LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7168573656938262528/?originTrackingId=lzV%2Fw5pzT1ipfKGlPKFcvA%3D%3D
Q. Hong Kong's GDP growth declined for the fourth quarter and its impact on China's economy
We expect further weakness in HK & China data. Many investors paid attention to the development of Chinese real estate sector, including the troubles in Country Garden and Evergrande. But we believe this is about time to pay more attention to the smaller players: smaller developers and money lenders are facing liquidity crunch, and the damage has not been fully priced in the market yet. The government should do more, and can do more. I think next quarters present interesting trading opportuinties for the short term traders.
Q. The impact of the interest rate decision on the New Zealand dollar
The inflation in New Zealand has been sticky and has formed the basis for the hawkish central bank for quite some time. But the recent inflation expectation was somewhat lower than expected, and the Centeral Bank has responded with more conservative approach. There is some debate whether the Central Bank will raise rate in the 1st half of this year, but we believe that the core inflation will stay contained for quite sometime and this will increase the likelyhood that the rate will stay where it is for the 1st half of the year. Accordingly we believe the New Zealand dollar will show sign of weakness in comming months.
Q. Expectations of the Australian Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy after the decline in the consumer price index (inflation)
We believe the central bank will focus on the employment, export, and overal inflation data for comming days. We think the market fundamental will be weaker than many expected, the recent inflation data was weaker than expected and we expect the weakness to continue and this will induce central bank for more dovish monetary policy.